Political crisis

The global economic crisis found Slovenia off-balance and completely unprepared for the resulting mass layoffs. Even in late 2008, governmental officials claimed that there was no need to fear any economic downfall.
Janez Janša then lost the 2008 elections and Borut Pahor formed a new, left-wing coalition, consisting of four parties: the winning Social Democrats (SD), the liberal democratic LDS, newly formed party Zares and DeSUS, the pensioners' party. Though they all claimed to be on the left side of the political spectrum, it was not long before key differences among their aims, strategies and ideas started to show. It became increasingly obvious that they were united against one common enemy - the right-wing SDS party and its leader, Janez Janša. Once he was defeated, and they had to form coalition aims and priorities, they found less and less common ground.

Permanent threats of departure

It was no surprise, when in April DeSUS announced they are leaving the coalition. In fact, they were only carrying out the threats they had repeated throughout their work in the coalition led by Borut Pahor. They were the toughest nut to crack, even before the beginning of the coalition, when their president Karel Erjavec left coalition negotiations in 2008, because his wish to remain minister of defence was thwarted.

According to most politicians and economists, pension reform is necessary because of the ageing Slovenian population. Its key solution was that people would retire later than in the current system.

Even though it seems the final reason for their departure was the resignation of Duša Trobec Bučan, minister for local self-management and regional development, the true reason lies elsewhere. DeSUS actively opposed one of the key reforms of the coalition: pension reform. According to most politicians and economists, pension reform is necessary because of the ageing Slovenian population. Its key solution was that people would retire later than in the current system. This reform encountered great opposition among unions, right-wing parties and DeSUS. Six weeks before Pahor would face the people's will on the matter in the referendum, DeSUS decided to withdraw from the coalition, adding another twist to the coalition crisis.

Call for the elections

The departure the party DeSUS was not the start of crisis, since Karel Erjavec had resigned as a minister months before, Duša Trobec Bučan left the government, environmental minister Roko Žarnić left DeSUS and the last minister of their party, Minister of Labour, Family and Social Affairs Ivan Svetlik, was denied their support. However, their departure put in question Pahor's ability to lead a stable government and prepare the right answers to the challenges many Slovenians face.
The opposition, led by Janez Janša, began to call for the early elections, which in Slovenia can only happen if the parliament resigns as a whole. Even though Janša promised the votes of his members of parliament, the coalition strongly opposed this idea. They claimed that his support of early elections is dishonest, as he allegedly does not wish to win in a time of economic crisis. However, according to polls, the government has such low support it would not have a fighting chance of winning an election Therefore, it would seem that early elections are not in any party's interest.

Historical defeat

In this turmoil, came the super-referendums. It was the first time, that Slovenians had three referendums on the same day. One was about the opening of historical archives of the Yugoslav secret police; another was about the law that was dealing with preventing strikebreaking. The opposition proposed both of them.
The third and perhaps most important was aforementioned referendum on pension reform. In the end, Pahor lost his proposal for pension reform with 72% of voters (turnout was 40%) opposing it. According to the experts, people did not so much vote against the reform as they did against an unpopular prime minister and the government as a whole. Even though more or less everyone, from unions to the opposition, still agrees that reform is necessary, the front pages are no longer occupied with this subject. It seems that political parties are now only thinking about how to survive until and after the 2012 elections.

Minority government

After the initial shock, Borut Pahor announced that he would deal with the pension question, which is closely related to the gaping hole in the state's budget, by preparing an intervention law, which would open many new fronts. Amongst the rumoured ideas, it would include a moratorium on new jobs in the public sector, and it would also cut into the rights and pay cheques of pensioners and public employees, along with cuts in the social transfers.
The intervention law is not welcomed by anyone, from the opposition, unions, President Danilo Türk, to the coalition itself. Therefore, Pahor started to talk about a state budget amendment. He says he would bind his vote of confidence in parliament to it. Whether or not he would win this is becoming increasingly unclear, because he has lost yet another coalition party that could provide him with votes in parliament.

Even though more or less everyone, from unions to the opposition, still agrees that pension reform is necessary, the front pages are no longer occupied with this subject. It seems that political parties are now only thinking about how to survive until and after the 2012 elections.

Rumours about the party Zares leaving the coalition are not new, either. Their president, Gregor Golobič, announced that he was resigning his post as the minister for higher education weeks before the super-referendum day, since Borut Pahor and the LDS leader Katarina Kresal did not wish to follow his advice and resign altogether in order to make a clear break of the difficult situation into which the coalition had fallen. However, it was not clear whether that meant Zares as a whole, along with the three remaining ministers from that party (Minister of Culture Majda Širca, Minister of Public Administration Irma Pavlinič Krebs and Minister for the Economy Darja Radić) were leaving as well.
In late June it became clear, that Zares and Pahor could not reach an agreement about the concrete reconstruction of the government, proposed by Zares, so Ministers Radić, Širca and Pavlinič Krebs decided they are leaving their posts along with their president. Pahor now finds himself in a coalition with only one remaining party, the LDS. It is not clear yet how the negotiations on the budget cuts will continue and how the members of parliament who were formally part of the coalition will vote on them. Can Borut Pahor indeed lead a minority government or are the elections coming sooner than expected?