Mramor at IMF meetings: Slovenia doing relatively well
"The talks were honest and we received praise for the work done especially in 2015," Mramor said on Saturday.
He however brought to the officials' attention the changed situation in 2016 due to the new, 2014-2020 EU budget perspective, from which Slovenia will get less funds than in the previous period.
He had outlined the government's policies designed to neutralize this negative effect, saying the talks had shown willingness to help, for instance with expert assistance in areas such as taxes.
While Mramor believes Slovenia is doing relatively well, there are still "several tasks to be done to preserve growth and strengthen the system".
These are primarily fiscal sustainability and business environment, both of which were addressed in the 2016-2017 National Reform Programme, a document the government adopted last Thursday to submit to the European Commission.
However, Mramor said a problem of Slovenia's was ratings based on answers provided by managers or law firms in questionnaires.
He believes Slovenia's business environment is more competitive than what it emerges from such questionnaires.
"If we take a look at hard data rather than the data based on perception, we are doing fairly well," he said.
While the IMD or the World Economic Forum keep sticking to such questionnaires, the World Bank is moving away from them. This can result in a major gap between the actual situation and the perception of it, he believes.
In Slovenia's case, the European Commission has been pointing to this discrepancy, the minister explained.
Mramor is happy that the IMF had forecast 1.9% growth for Slovenia for 2016 as opposed to the 1.7% forecast by IMAD, Slovenia's macroeconomic forecaster.
He cannot remember when was the last time the IMF had forecast Slovenia a higher growth rate than Slovenia itself.
Mramor is optimistic, yet cautious, about Slovenia's public finances in 2016 though.
Basing his optimism on hard data, he said the first estimate was that we were moving in the right direction, that the deficit was being reduced.
"Whether this is done fast enough or too slowly is a matter of how you evaluate individual revenues or costs."
As for macroeconomic trends, Mramor was "presently surprised" by the February growth in exports, which were up 7.9% year-on-year.
"The first two months have posted an almost 5% growth rate and the growth is being sustained; industrial output has also risen, so the results are relatively good."
Dropping unemployment is another area inspiring optimism, with Mramor saying the survey unemployment in February dropped to 8.2% from 9% a year ago.
Another encouraging development is a rise in the volume of loans to businesses in January, which happened after a very long period of time, he added.
"A 0.6% rise in the overall volume of loans is definitely a good sign. This is not just a rise in new loans, but in the entire volume of loans."
At the same time consumer lending is rising fast, especially for housing, which verifies the forecasts that domestic consumption would add to growth this year, he said.
However, the minister identified as worrying the February drop in construction and a rapid rise in wages.
"One should analyse whether the drop was a one-off event", perhaps one of the first results of a drop in the volume of European funds for infrastructure projects.
"Wages are rising fast not only in the public sector,...but also in the private sector. This requires a lot of caution so that we don't lose our competitive edge," he said.
Mramor, who has been in the US for almost a week, has also met representatives of leading US financial institutions.
Asked whether Slovenia was gearing up for a new bond issue, he said it all depended on the situation when and how many bonds Slovenia would issue.