Loved Once, Unjustifiably Neglected Now
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And there is more. Today there are quite a few pro-Balkan factors. Not just that share price movement on the Balkan stock market went its own way, but also the story of economic growth tells us that this is a place where there is potential. Of course it is not immediately accessible. But we can easily imagine how companies would do their business if owners and management were focused mostly on business - that is without some side interests which are often visible in the outflow of free capital to absurd projects. We are going to reach this "stage" through privatisation procedures which will gradually diminish the influence of politics.
Other pro-Balkan factors
We need to also consider the long-term factors that affect the attractiveness of the region, such as political stability (the entire region is practically already in the EU and perhaps in the future some countries can adopt the Euro as their currency), low correlation with other stock exchange markets, low workforce cost and market liberalisation (accompanied by a good basis for economic growth). Neither should we forget factors such as the low representation of the region in global investors' portfolios. In this respect we can stress that due to the low liquidity the shares from the region are not very interesting for global investors. This is also indirectly visible in some stock exchange indexes structures where the region is poorly present. For example, in the MSCI Frontier market index which is supposed to represent frontier markets (or can mean the next step in the context of developed and developing markets etc) we notice that Southern Europe is represented only with a good six percent weight. And it is a fact that each small entrance of new investors is going to show in the general liquidity. An excellent example of this is the takeover of the Croatian Ina at the end of last year. At that time the Croatian stock market rocketed by several percentages in a few days while average trade in the Zagreb stock exchange considerably increased. The fact is that every transaction which happens in the region may have a positive effect on the general state of affairs.
Time of opportunities
When discussing the right moment for investment it makes sense to think about the proverb which says that when everybody is talking about a particular investment, the time to make that investment has already long since passed. The thing is that all of those who thought they might make a profit out of it have already made their purchases by then. In addition to this, the question of who is going to be willing to buy something for higher prices arises. This is why the time periods when regions, industries or individual companies are overlooked make much more sense from the perspective of long-term and patient investing. And today is just such a time for the region in which we live.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Slovenia Times.