The Slovenia Times

Election Campaign Enters Decisive Phase

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The left bloc has been particularly busy after a disastrous showing in the 25 May EU election, when the left theoretically won but the votes were so fragmented that the conservative parties won five of Slovenia's eight seats in the European Parliament.

At least two alliances are already quite firmly established, driven on the one hand by the desire of the established parties to expand their base and, on the other hand, the wish of the small players to make the 4% threshold for parliament.

The Social Democrats (SD) have decided to form a joint list with Solidarity, a non-parliamentary party that emerged from the anti-establishment protests of 2012, and a more loosely construed "social democratic alliance" with the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS)

The Alenka Bratušek Alliance (ZaAB), formed by the outgoing prime minister, is meanwhile in talks with Believe, the party of former Court of Audit president Igor Šoltes, the non-parliamentary Zares, and the Youth Party (SMS).

Positive Slovenia (PS) of Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković is reportedly mulling a joining of forces with the non-parliamentary Liberal Democrats (LDS), though it has not been at the nexus of talks on cooperation.

The newly-formed Miro Cerar Party will probably go it alone, which is not unusual given how high its ratings are, as will the United Left and the Pirate Party, which both did reasonably well in the EU election.

The situation on the right is much calmer. New Slovenia (NSi) and the People's Party (SLS) will continue an alliance that has served them well in the Eurovote, though they will not appear with a joint list.

Nevertheless, the SLS, NSi and Janez Janša's Democrats (SDS), which occasionally pull out the joint banner of "spring parties" by virtue of their role in Slovenia's struggle for independence, are banding together.

The three parties are in the process of signing a "partnership agreement" defining shared programming priorities that NSi leader Ljudmila Novak sees as a possible precursor to a coalition agreement.

Political commentators say the campaign will be dynamic, since there are so many new players on the political field that voters know little about, and given the uncertainty over the Patria case.

While polls give the new players significant chances, political commentator Dejan Steinbuch says parties with a well developed local network, such as the SDS, SD and DeSUS, will have the upper hand when it comes to canvassing.

Moreover, according to Steinbuch, public TV is under no obligation to give non-parliamentary parties equal airtime, which will be important when it comes to election debates.

Tanja Starič, a commentator for Radio Slovenija, likewise notes that the bulk of the campaign will be played out in the media, hence the importance of the debates.

Both Starič and Steinbuch told the STA the campaign would be negative, as attempts to discredit the presidents of the new parties will be lobbed through online media. "The negative campaign is a given," says Starič.

The Patria case will loom large. Unless the Supreme Court or the Constitutional Court step in, Janša will have to start serving a two-year prison sentence on 20 June, at the height of campaigning.

While this will no doubt be a hot topic on the electoral circuit, Starič believes it will not have a significant impact on the outcome, as the SDS has firm support whatever the fortunes of its leader.

Political pundits will also keep a close eye on turnout given how much time was spent in recent weeks challenging the acceptability of holding a general election in the middle of summer. In the last two elections, in 2008 and 2011, turnout was around 63% and 65%, respectively.

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