The Slovenia Times

Will Miro Cerar Fulfil High Expectations?

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Campaigning on a platform of transcending the deep right-left divisions and strengthening the rule of law, the Party of Miro Cerar (SMC) has won nearly 35% of the vote, leaving others far in its wake despite criticism that his party lacks substance.

In the Slovenian equivalent of an acceptance speech late on Sunday, the 50-year-old jurist, who formed his party a mere 40 days before the elections, announced his priority would be to "build on what is good, while rejecting the corrupt".

"This will be quite a challenge," he said while rejecting the notion that change is next to impossible to implement, stressing that Slovenians have achieved a lot when they put on a united front.

The priorities will be to retain the country's credibility and its openness to the world, he added. "We must strive to manage the country well, be it in public finance, the development of the public administration or the promotion of the economy and proving the welfare state."

His first challenge will be to form a government quickly, a perennial test in a parliament divided among more than half a dozen parties, in the face of mounting demands for quick measures to lift Slovenia's battered economy.

While still somewhat of a political enigma, Cerar is viewed in public as leaning more to the left, although he has kept the door ajar to coalition-building on a broad front after having promoted a moderate agenda regarding key issues.

However, he has already ruled out a grand coalition with the second-placed Democratic Party (SDS), which won a little over 20% of the vote (21 seats), due to what he believes is its efforts to undermined the rule of law in the country.

The centre-right party has refused to accept the conviction of its leader Janez Janša in the Patria corruption trial, labelling it a show trial in which the former prime minister was framed by neo-Communist forces in the country.

The SDS, which rallied around its leader during the campaign, stepped up the rhetoric after its defeat by SMC by denouncing the election as "illegitimate" and announcing it would start a selective boycott of the new parliament.

This leaves him with the option of seeking to build a coalition with the remaining five parties that have won a combined 31 seats.

Finishing in third place with 10.2% is the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS), which has provided key votes to nearly all governments since 1996.

In the biggest surprise of the election, the neo-socialist United Left (ZL), emerged in fourth place with nearly 6% of the vote, in what is understood as a confirmation of the desire for change in Slovenia's political landscape.

The socialist party bringing together three outfits emerging from the anti-elite protest movement from 2012 edged out the traditional leftist force, the Social Democrats (SD), who also won around 6%.

Rounding out parliament are the conservative New Slovenia (NSi) with 5.5% and the centrist party of outgoing Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek (ZaAB) with 4.35%.

The latter would be the most natural ally for Cerar in the centre, but such a coalition would still be six seats short of a majority.

DeSUS looks to be the fastest path to forming a government for Cerar, although its hard line on pensions could raise problems for a new government facing demands from the EU for a new pension reform.

It has also formed an informal coalition with the SD as part of which the two parties pledged to work together after the election in a social-democratic bloc, giving them ever greater leverage in such talks.

Meanwhile, a coalition with the radical left ZL looks near to impossible because of its hardline views on economic issues.

And although Cerar has not ruled out reaching out to the right, officials of New Slovenia (NSi) have suggested that courting the party could be a tall order given its liberal economic programme.

While Cerar remained tight-lipped about his plans for a coalition, except to say that talks on this would begin on Monday, he rejected the notion that he would seek to form a super majority of over 60 seats in the 90-seat parliament required to change the Constitution.

Regardless of how the talks pan out, the outcome is seen as opening a new chapter in Slovenia's political history.

There is indeed broad consensus among political analysts that in the battle between new and old, the former won convincingly even if only on the desire of change rather than on concrete plans.

Serving as a case in point is the elimination from the National Assembly of the People's Party (SLS), the oldest party in the country, which has sat in all parliaments since the first multi-party elections in 1990.

The SLS appears to have missed out on the 4% threshold by several dozen votes, although it can still hope for a miracle following the arrival of mailed votes from Slovenia and abroad.

Its fate is part of broader losses in Sunday's vote for the traditional parties in the so-called Spring bloc which played a dominant role in Slovenia's independence efforts. This has already sparked calls for reflection on the right.

However, it was not only the conservative wing that was hit by the desire for new faces, as two other parties which sat in parliament in the past term have also been banished to the sidelines.

The Positive Slovenia (PS) of Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković, the winner of the last general election with nearly 30%, managed a mere 2.96% after its infamous split in April, while the centrist Citizens' List (DL) was barely detected by the vote counters.

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