Exports to Russia, Ukraine Could Collapse by over EUR 200M
"The projection of an about EUR 200m fall in exports to the markets of Russia and Ukraine is unfortunately coming true. I fear the fall will be even bigger in case of a further escalation and additional sanctions by the EU," says Aleš Cantarutti, the head of the GZS international relations department.
Talking with the STA on the sidelines of the Bled Strategic Forum earlier this week, the official said it was not so much the direct impact of sanctions, taken by the EU against Russia in response to the Ukraine crisis, but rather a psychological effect accompanying them.
In the case of Ukraine, an additional problem is a strong depreciation of its currency and a halt in investment. "Ukraine's investments at the moment are exclusively in the military industry, while opportunities for foreign companies in other fields are few," Cantarutti said.
In Russia, which banned imports of a range of agricultural and food products from the EU in response to economic sanctions against it, consumers have become much more cautious as they used to be, according to Cantarutti.
"The Russians didn't use to be known for that. They have obviously been affected. They choose carefully what and when they buy." This has a negative effect on Slovenia because its exports to Russia are mainly end products, he said, pointing to the effect on pharma company Krka and household appliances maker Gorenje.
Nevertheless, Cantarutti also says that despite the price of the sanctions being high, it would have not been right of the EU to turn a blind eye to what is happening in Ukraine.
Commenting on the possibility of Russia taking counter-measures affecting the car industry in case of new sanctions imposed on it, Cantarutti noted that Russia had recently adopted aid for the home car industry, which would also impact negatively on the Slovenian automotive cluster and industry suppliers.