Epidemic decline getting slower, say IJS experts

Ljubljana- The latest projections by the Jožef Stefan Institute (IJS) indicate that the epidemic in Slovenia is subsiding at an increasingly slower pace. The epidemic curve might even be at the point of stagnation, the IJS said, noting that Slovenia was still firmly in tier red according to EU criteria. The basic reproductive number has increased.

The number, suggesting the expected total of secondary cases produced by infectious case, stands at 0.94, whereas a week ago it was 0.75.

The projections took into account the impact of immunisation and new strains of the coronavirus, but not the impact of recent mass events or the effect of tier green easing of restrictions.

Based on the EU’s traffic light system, where the 14-day incidence per 100,000 residents is the main criteria, Slovenia is in tier red. Its incidence is above 200 and for the country to be promoted to tier orange, the figure must fall below 150.

If the epidemic continues to ebb away, Slovenia could reach this target in the second half of June and move to tier green in mid-August, the IJS said. However, the institute warns that given a change in the pace of the decline, this forecast is quite unreliable.

According to IJS estimates, roughly one in 100 Slovenian residents was infected during the first Covid-19 wave. A third of the population has been infected in the second wave so far. Currently, 0.4% of the population is infected or one in 250 residents.