Slovenia projected to progress to yellow phase in mid-May

Ljubljana – The Jožef Stefan Institute (IJS) has noted that the Covid-19 epidemic in Slovenia is stagnating in terms of the number of positive tests, with the basic reproduction number standing at around one. It projects that the next, yellow phase of restrictions easing could be reached in mid-May.

One of the criteria for the yellow phase is fewer than 500 patients in hospitals which, given the current trends, the country’s prime research institute says could happen this Saturday.

Another criterion is the daily average of newly-confirmed infections in the last seven days below 600. Under the current basic reproduction number, this is to be reached on 13 May.

In the yellow phase, school reopens for all secondary school and university students, student dorms reopen, all remaining services reopen and the 9pm-6am curfew is lifted in the entire country (optionally only for some regions).

The green phase if when the seven-day average of infections drops below 300, as this is the number when epidemiologists will be able to effectively trace contacts to further facilitate the reduction in the number of infections in the general population.

In that phase, all restrictions are lifted for the entire country, while general hygienic measures remain in place, while night clubs and discotheques remain closed.

The IJS also said on Monday that the new, more virulent strain of the novel coronavirus could become dominant at the end of April and the curve could turn upwards again.

The estimated doubling time for the new strain in the current conditions is around 10 days, but uncertainty of this estimate is high, the institute said.