Ljubljana – Pollster Valicon expects a tough battle for election victory this Sunday. The Freedom Movement is just slightly ahead of the Democrats (SDS) and the Social Democrats (SD), New Slovenia (NSi) and the Left will most probably get into parliament, while the fate of three parties is to be decided by tactical voters.
The two leading parties are expected to be far ahead of all the other parties, the pollster says in its election forecast.
The five parties that will most likely exceed the parliamentary threshold are followed by the Alenka Bratušek Party (SAB), Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ) and Connecting Slovenia, whose fate is not clear yet and will be decided by tactical voters.
According to Valicon, Resni.ca may also become a parliamentary party and there is also some hope for the Pirate Party. For both the actual turnout will be crucial and whether their supporters will actually cast the ballot, as they do not typically attend elections.
The estimated maximum range of other parties is below 4% but if the turnout is indeed as high as expected, surprises will be possible but not very likely, Valicon said.
The other parties have minimal chances of making to parliament. If any, than Vesna and Our Land could potentially still make it but currently they poll at less than 4%.
The higher the turnout of tactical voters, the lower the chances of a surprise, the pollster says.
The first projections of turnout that take into account the turnout in the first two days of early voting compared to the July 2021 referendum on the waters act show that over 1.2 million voters may cast their ballot, which is more than 70%, Valicon says.
The survey estimate of the turnout is close, at around 68%. According to Valicon, at least 62% of the voters can definitely be expected, which is just over 1.05 million voters. The maximum turnout is estimated at 73% or just over 1.24 million voters.