The Slovenia Times

Brexit Fears

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In the aftermath of the referendum result, most financial experts slashed their growth expectations for the UK dramatically, with many forecasting an outright contraction in GDP for two quarters - a technical recession. The immediate signs were indeed pointing to troublesome economic times ahead. The British pound tumbled against the US dollar to its lowest level since 1985. Leading financial institutions announced that they would probably move some of their operations from London's City district to Germany and France. Worrying news considering the financial powerhouse generates 22 percent of the UK's GDP.

However, in the two months since the referendum, Britain's economy continues to bounce back from the initial shock with two positive job and housing surveys, both of which had pointed to a gloomy outlook one month post-referendum. Consequently, both Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse scrapped their forecasts that the UK would go into recession following the Brexit vote.

Political turmoil

Though any economic consequences may have been overrated or delayed, the political fallout is all too apparent. While the remaining 27 members of the EU are urging the UK to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - which starts the formal two year "divorce" negotiations - without too much delay, Theresa May is not in a hurry, insisting that she will not trigger it before the end of the year at the earliest which is understandable since the UK has a lot of negotiations to handle within its own borders and the prime minister has said that the UK has to have a united approach before the exit talks begin.

The amount of internal negotiations that will have to take place became evident in the turmoil that followed the result. In the first few days and weeks after 23 June, the UK's leading political figures from both sides resigned, one after the other, including UKIP's Nigel Farage, followed by Boris Johnson and finally, the now former prime minister, David Cameron. The process to pick the next UK prime minister was almost as swift and dramatic with a new PM chosen within a couple of weeks of Cameron's resignation, although it was not expected to happen until September. The opposition itself was also fighting its battles, with many Labor members wanting Jeremy Corbyn to be replaced with a new leader.

In Scotland, where the referendum result was in favour of remaining in the EU (62 percent), the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced straight after the results came in that she would not rule out a second independence referendum in Scotland if the UK is to leave the EU. "Scotland is determined to stay in the EU," she said. "I don't underestimate the challenges that lie ahead for us in seeking to find a path."

In Northern Ireland, where 56 percent voted to remain in the EU, the referendum reignited talks of a unified Irish state. Considering the fears of a disintegration of the United Kingdom, Theresa May has an unenviable task of reaching a deal within her own borders.

Indirect impact

In Slovenia, experts expect the UK's exit from the EU to have indirect effects on the country due to the direct impact it will have on the economic growth of Slovenia's main trading partners. How large these effects will be is difficult to assess, according to the Ministry of Finance. One of the immediate effects is expected to be on payments to and from the EU budget as well as the impact on interest rates, however, the Ministry stressed the financial position of the country is strong.

Slovenia's Institute for Macroecenomic Analysis and Development (IMAD) says the UK's decision to leave the EU further illustrates the need to strengthen the resilience of the Slovenian economy to shocks from abroad. "As pointed out for several years, it is necessary to carry out structural and fiscal reforms that will strengthen the resilience of the Slovenian economy to the uncertainties posed by the international environment and enable the economic policy response to such shocks," they warned.

Though Brexit has not had any major direct or indirect impact on the Slovenian economy thus far, there are signs that the crisis has had its effects. One such example is that the "non-deal road show" in July this year on the sale of the government's shares in NLB, the country's biggest bank, was postponed "due to the current volatile situation in financial markets", reported the Slovenian Sovereign Holding (SSH). The government has promised to reduce its holding in NLB to 25 percent plus one share by the end of 2017 and is insistent that, despite the delay, the deadline will still be met.

Tough negotiations ahead

Meanwhile, the EU27 had its second meeting post referendum. The summit, held in Bratislava on 16 September, was set for "brutally honest debate' on the crises that have reversed the expansion of the European project.

Slovakian Prime Minister, Robert Fico, current head of the EU'S rotating presidency, said the informal summit in Bratislava would create an opportunity for honest discussions among the Member States as the EU project faces growing skepticism. "After Brexit and the risks that are associated with it, it is absolutely necessary to meet and to be very honest," Fico told reporters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the EU faces a "critical situation". "We have to show, with our actions, that we can get better," Merkel said as she arrived at the summit. "I hope that Bratislava shows that we want to work together and we want to solve the problems which we have in Europe," she added.

Though Brexit wasn't the main topic of the summit, the leaders reaffirmed their position regarding the commencement of the exit negotiations with the UK. "Access to the single market requires acceptance of all four freedoms (movement of labour and capital and free trade in goods and services)," the leaders said. "Those who want to have free access to our internal market; have to first implement the four freedoms without exception and I have to add, without nuances," European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker added.

The migration was at the centre of the UK's Leave campaign and many voted to exit the EU expecting restriction on the influx of foreigners into the country. Whether the UK's government will be able to deliver on its promises to its nation and keep its perks in the EU is anyone's guess.
 

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