The Slovenia Times

IMF keeps GDP growth forecast for Slovenian unchanged

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The IMF's forecast for 2019 remains roughly on par with that of other international and domestic institutions, whose projections for this year have ranged between 3.3% and 3.6%.

As for next year, the IMF's projection is among the more reserved, with the government's economic think tank IMAD for instance announcing 3.1% in its spring forecast, while Banka Slovenije and the European Commission projected the GDP to rise by 3%.

The IMF expects a 1.4% inflation rate for this year in Slovenia and 1.6% next year. By 2024, the rate is expected to return to 2%, which is the medium-term goal of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The survey unemployment rate is expected to drop from 5.3% last year to 4.8% this year, and then to increase slightly next year to 4.9%.

While there is no commentary on Slovenia in the report, the IMF said at the end of 2018 as its regular mission concluded a visit to the country that Slovenia should take structural measures which would enable greater welfare in the long run.

It sees a fast ageing of the population as the main challenge, as it puts tremendous pressure on public finances.

Structural challenges include a low growth in productivity, shortage of labour force and high taxes, as well as a demanding regulatory system and a large number of companies being in state ownership.

The political priorities Slovenia should pursue are maintaining the results of fiscal consolidation by keeping a balanced structural budget and avoiding a procyclical public fiscal policy, something for which the 2019 is being criticised.

The IMF also proposes structural reforms, in particular pension and health reform, and better regulation of long-term care, wages in the public sector and taxes.

It has also called for banks and companies to clean balance sheets, for a greater flexibility of the labour market and faster privatisation.

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