Regardless of the outcome of the next US election, Europe should be active and engage in relations with the US and China, heard a panel discussing the fading Pax Americana at the Bled Strategic Forum on 3 September.

Tobias Lindner, minister of state at the Federal Foreign Office of Germany, finds that everyone has been preparing scenarios ahead of the US presidential election. "Europe and the US need each other, also when it comes to support to Ukraine. None of the two sides can do it alone."

"We need to continuously speak with people in Washington, in both camps. We need to try to convince the US that the war in Europe is not only about our own interests. This is a really fundamental threat and it is intertwined with US interests," he said; that support is reciprocal, so if the US cuts its support "then we are in a new game".

Jakub Wisniewski, undersecretary of state at the Foreign Ministry of Poland, which will take over the EU presidency in January 2025, said his country was advocating for a "degree of healthy stoicism". "But this does not mean we do not prepare," he said, pointing to military expenditure.

"If there is less America in Europe, there should be more Europe in Europe. We can find a consensus within the EU and this is where Poland's presidency steps in. We want to show we're different from Hungary," he said, adding that Europe had been silent on global issues for too long.

Doubling down on democratic resilience, defence

Nathalie Tocci, an Italian political scientist and international relations expert and the director of Istituto Affari Internazionali, finds the Pax Americana or the US-led international order has been over for at least 10-15 or 20 years and the first US president to acknowledge that was Barrack Obama.

Now the US has two diametrically opposite options, she believes. It can accept the fact that it no longer runs the show and form alliances to redistribute responsibilities to its partners or it can prioritise its own interests, meaning focus on China.

The first option is "great news for Europe", which could thus become a more equal partner, while the second is "catastrophic for Europe", Tocci said. The latter means that if there is a war in Europe it will have to deal with it on its own.

But according to Tocci, the "policy recipe" for Europe is the same no matter what course the US takes. "We should double down on our democratic resilience given that our democracies are in danger, we should double down on defence, including the European defence within NATO, and basically assume greater responsibility for Ukraine."

Europe should also no longer be starry-eyed regarding China, but at the same time figure out how to protect itself in relation to China while also making sure this does not lead to protectionism.

"The paradox is this: the Trump scenario is one which on the one hand puts us on the verge of precipice but certainly galvanises us into action. Maybe we fail but we're certainly going to try to do something about it. The danger of the Harris scenario is that we sit back and relax."

Philippe Etienne, the former French ambassador to the US during the Trump and Biden administrations, agreed, noting that there was a sigh of relief when Biden was elected and Europe "sat back and relaxed".

He stressed Europe should act. "It is not surprising that US presidents take decisions that are best for US people and European politicians do the same."

Europe is at risk of losing in the technology of the future race. Action has started in defence, technology but Europe has to do something quicker and with much more intensity, he said.

In trade, there is a consensus that regrettably the US takes its decisions independently from the rules of the World Trade Organisation. This is linked with domestic policy, where leaders want to regain the support of the US working class, Etienne noted.

Strong Europe in best interest of US

According to Malgorzata Bonikowska, head of the Polish Centre for International Relations Foundation, the strategic autonomy concept started with the feeling of distance from the US. "But actually a strong Europe is in the best interest of the US also in the sense of security. It is good for the US to have a strong partner," she said.

There will be America first policy whoever wins the election. In China, Biden continues what Trump started and China will remain a top priority, while Europe's interest is that the world does not go bipolar again, she said.

American interest will be to build a position in respect to China, and Europe has to build a strong position in respect to both, she believes.

"What will bring us together is trade and values. Every country will put their interest first. Let just try to regroup in smaller groups where we can resonate better."

Lindner stressed that Europeans need to understand that China is the main security threat in the US. He called for an update of the EU-China strategy, which he said will be one of the priorities of the new commission.

"This is necessary to deal with China and it is necessary to deal with the US because we will always be significantly closer to the US but the position will not be identical. But we have to see where we have things in common."