The Slovenia Times

NATO fit for future, deterrence will remain key, Bled forum told

Bled Strategic Forum 2024Politics
Panellists at Bled Strategic Forum discuss the future of NATO. Photo: Boštjan Podlogar/STA

A panel debate at the Bled Strategic Forum about the future of NATO underlined the importance of deterrence, military capabilities and increased investments. In fact, the alliance will launch detailed talks with members about their defence investments in the future, NATO Assistant Secretary General Angus Lapsley said.

At the moment, Russia is the threat that absorbs most of NATO's energies, engaging in activities that only stop short of going to war, Lapsley told the panel on the final day of the international conference in Bled on 3 September.

The nature and intensity of these actions continue to rise and NATO must push back and show that it will stop a possible attack and that it would hurt Russia in case of a conventional attack. To do this, NATO must invest money, people and industrial capacity, Lapsley believes.

The importance of NATO capabilities was echoed by former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu, who also said that the global system had been fragmented and that NATO needed to adapt to a multipolar world. The alliance should do more to establish better dialogue with Southern and middle powers.

Cavusoglu also encouraged better cooperation with "Asian actors", suggesting that Europe and Asia share the same security concerns. The US will continue to insist that NATO classify China as a threat, but he believes the alliance should not be making new enemies.

Slovenia's Defence Ministry State Secretary Damir Črnčec urged strengthening military and dual use capabilities, as he talked above all about Slovenia's views. He said that the country would be meeting the goal of investing 2% of GDP in defence.

Alexandre Escorcia of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces meanwhile talked about the effects of the war in Ukraine, saying that good leadership of the alliance and Russian President Vladimir Putin himself had revitalised NATO.

Putin wanted a weaker NATO, fewer troops on his borders and a weaker Ukraine, but the opposite is the case now. Putin's spin doctors are in trouble because it is hard to sell this as a success, said Escorcia.

He believes that going forward the allies will have to take into account the security concerns of all NATO members. The alliance will have to communicate with its partners, especially the EU, but also beyond, and also NATO needs to appreciate the effects of developments outside its area on the alliance.

Robin S. Quinville, director of the Global Europe Program at the Wilson Center, described a number of lessons NATO has learned in the war in Ukraine, underlining the key role of deterrence.

This requires robust capabilities that are ready in the case of a ground war. Moreover, air defence plays a decisive role in protecting civilian infrastructure, she said.

Another key point is drones, said Quinville, also underlining that they should not be multi-purpose aircraft but built for a specific purpose and allowing software changes, which in the war in Ukraine are required every six to eight weeks.

Meanwhile, Valerio de Luca, the chairman of the Academy for Innovation, Economic Development and Security, underlined the need for Europe to invest more, also saying that the European Central Bank would soon issue a competitiveness report advising investment in and development of the domestic defence industry.

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