Conservatives "Destroyed" Fragmented and Clueless Left in EU Election
The Democrats (SDS) will keep three seats in the European Parliament, as the clear winners of the election with just shy of a quarter of the vote according to preliminary official results, though their result is almost two percentage points worse than in 2009.
This may be due to the legal problems of their leader Janez Janša, who is almost certain to go to prison shortly after being found guilty of bribery-related charges in the Patria corruption trial, which has energised the SDS's rank-and-file but may have alienated voters with looser party affiliation.
The joint list of the New Slovenia (NSi) and People's Party (SLS) won two seats with almost 16.5% of the vote, including the first ever for the SLS, in what is touted as a huge success and a nod from voters to cooperation.
However, the NSi alone had won a greater share of the vote in 2009 than it managed now together with the SLS.
The NSi and SLS have been talking about continuing their alliance into the general election, but early statements from NSi members indicate some resentment against the SLS that could yet prove problematic as the general election campaign starts.
The situation on the left is even more chaotic, with almost a dozen players fragmenting the vote, which appears to have cost the left bloc dearly.
I Believe, a list compiled just weeks ago by former Court of Audit president Igor Šoltes, emerged as the winner on the left with 10.5% of the vote, leaving behind all the established players.
Šoltes is one of the few on the left who has reason to celebrate and look forward to the general election, the other being the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS), which achieved its best result in an EU election (over 8%) by joining forces with MEP Ivo Vajgl, who defected from the non-parliamentary Zares.
The Social Democrats (SD) will have only one MEP, down from two in the current parliament, as party president Igor Lukšič turned out not to have been a major draw as the top candidate.
He was leapfrogged by MEP Tanja Fajon, who won her second term thanks to preference votes.
The result is painful for the SD, which won slightly over 8%, compared to almost 18.5% five years ago.
Initial statements from the party suggest Lukšič could soon face a leadership challenge, though it is uncertain if that could happen before the early general election, which is likely to be held in mid-July.
Positive Slovenia (PS) took a drubbing a month after Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković returned as party leader, in a move that split his party and triggered the early election with the resignation of Prime Minister Alenka Bratušek.
The PS got just over 6.6% of the vote with the eurosceptical headliner Jože Mencinger, barely edging the United Left (5.5%), which was formed just months ago as a coalition of far-left non-parliamentary parties that traces its roots to the anti-establishment protests of 2012/2013.
The United Left's result is seen as a major stepping stone for the general election, but it also raises the issue of consolidation on the left.
Another party that emerged from the winter of protests, Solidarity, won just 1.7% of the vote in what has been described as a major disappointment. But the result suggests that the radical left could succeed in the general election, in particular if they join forces.
Further highlighting voters' disenchantment, Dream Job, a list that emerged from a Facebook campaign, got almost 3.6% and the Pirate Party another 2.6%.
The populist far-right National Party (SNS), which failed to make it to parliament in 2011, mustered over 4%, indicating it could return to the National Assembly with its illustrious and outspoken leader Zmago Jelinčič.
Turnout was barely over 24%, the lowest in any election since Slovenia's independence.
Setting aside the domestic scene, Slovenia will strengthen the conservative bloc in Brussels, as its delegation will contribute five MEPs to the European People's Party (EPP), up from four in the current parliament.
Milan Zver for the SDS and Lojze Peterle for the NSi won re-election and will be joined by newcomers Patricija Šulin and Romana Tomc (SDS) and SLS president Franc Bogovič, who was surprisingly elected with preference votes despite being last on the ballot.
Meanwhile, the Socialists (PS) will get only one member from Slovenia for sure, SD member Tanja Fajon, down from two in the current parliament.
Šoltes has not yet stated his preference though he is likely to ally either with the Socialists or the Liberals (ALDE), while Vajgl suggested he might stay in the ALDE faction though the DeSUS is not a member and would probably be a better fit with the Socialists.