The Slovenia Times

EBRD Upgrades Slovenia's 2014 GDP Growth Assessment to 2.7%



In its latest economic forecast for the region, published on Monday, the EBRD said that Slovenia was a surprise last year, attributing the growth to good export results and the recovering domestic demand.

Other internal factors contributing to the unexpected growth were a lower-than-expected yield on Slovenia's debt, the improved business climate, better phasing of EU funds and a somewhat slower restructuring of companies.

Slovenia's exports were meanwhile boosted by the increased competitiveness of exporters due to lower labour costs, according to the EBRD, which noted that improved cost competitiveness helped Slovenian exporters weather the deteriorating economic trends in the eurozone.

The EBRD expects that Slovenia's economy will continue to expand this year, albeit at a slower pace. The projected 1.6% growth in 2015 is based on the short-term negative impact of the restructuring of the economy, which is expected to benefit Slovenia in the mid-term.

Domestic demand is also expected to be stifled this year by the planned measures for bringing the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.

With 2.7% growth in 2014, Slovenia ranks somewhere in the middle of the Central and East European group, which also features Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia.

The EBRD expects that Slovenia's growth in 2015 will be well below the average for the region, which has been projected at 2.6%, with Lithuania (3.2%) and Poland and Latvia (3%) leading the way.

The bank's forecast for this year does not stand out much from the projections by Slovenian and other international institutions. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GZS) is the most pessimistic, expecting growth not to exceed 1.2%.

The latest projection by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) puts Slovenia's growth this year at 1.4%,the European Commission at 1.7% and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 1.75%.

The government's forecaster IMAD is the most optimistic, as it upgraded its growth projection for 2015 by 0.4 percentage points to 2% last month.


More from Nekategorizirano